Geopolitical events don’t wait for market hours. A missile strike, a surprise sanctions package, or a naval incident at a shipping chokepoint can reprice assets before most traders check their screens. This tutorial shows how to use FinBrain Terminal’s Intelligence page to build a structured geopolitical monitoring workflow.
The Intelligence Page
The Intelligence page combines three tools designed to work together:
- Geopolitical Globe — Raw event data plotted on a 3D map
- Intel Feed — Expert analysis from domain specialists
- Prediction Markets — Market-implied probabilities for specific outcomes
Each tool serves a different function: the globe shows what happened, the intel feed explains why it matters, and prediction markets quantify what might happen next.
Step 1: Scan the Globe
Start with the geopolitical globe to identify where events are occurring.
Regional Presets
Use the preset buttons to quickly check key areas:
| Preset | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | ~20% of global oil transits here. Any disruption affects crude prices globally |
| South China Sea | Maritime territorial disputes. Escalation affects shipping, semiconductors, and Asia-Pacific equities |
| Europe | NATO-adjacent conflicts, energy security, European equity risk |
| Middle East | Ongoing conflicts affecting energy, defense, and regional equity markets |
What to Look For
- Clusters of events in a concentrated area — suggests escalation
- New event types — protests evolving into armed conflict, or a new actor appearing
- Events near infrastructure — pipelines, ports, shipping lanes, military bases
- Events in previously quiet areas — may signal emerging risk
Click any marker for details: event type, date, data source, and description.
Data Source Context
Not all event sources carry equal weight:
| Source | Best For |
|---|---|
| ACLED | Conflict events, protests, political violence — high reliability, moderate latency |
| UCDP | Armed conflict fatality data — academic rigor, higher latency |
| GDELT | Media-reported events — fastest updates, noisier signal |
| USGS | Earthquakes and geological events — near real-time |
| EONET | Natural disasters — NASA-sourced, comprehensive coverage |
| HAPI | Humanitarian crises — displacement, food security |
GDELT updates fastest but includes more noise. ACLED and UCDP are more curated but update less frequently. Use GDELT for breaking awareness and ACLED/UCDP for confirmed patterns.
Step 2: Read the Intel Feed
After identifying events of interest on the globe, switch to the intel feed for expert analysis.
Filtering by Category
| Filter | Use When |
|---|---|
| All | Morning scan — see everything |
| Defense | Military developments, procurement, force posture changes |
| OSINT | Open-source investigations, satellite imagery analysis, digital forensics |
| Geopolitics | International relations, diplomacy, sanctions, trade policy |
Source Specializations
Each source has a distinct perspective:
- Bellingcat — Read when you need verification of specific events (did this attack actually happen? what weapons were used?)
- War on the Rocks — Read for strategic context (what does this event mean for broader military dynamics?)
- CSIS — Read for policy implications (how might governments respond?)
- Atlantic Council — Read for geopolitical framing (how does this fit into great power competition?)
- Foreign Affairs — Read for diplomatic context (what are the negotiation dynamics?)
- Breaking Defense — Read for defense industry impact (which companies are affected?)
Step 3: Check Prediction Markets
After understanding what’s happening (globe) and why it matters (intel feed), quantify the probability of specific outcomes using prediction markets.
What to Look For
- Contracts directly related to events you identified — Is there a contract on the specific conflict, election, or policy decision?
- Probability changes — A 10-point probability shift in 24 hours signals significant new information
- Probability vs your assessment — If you believe an event is more likely than the market price, there’s an information gap to investigate
- Category clustering — Multiple geopolitics contracts moving in the same direction suggests a broader risk reassessment
Cross-Referencing
The most valuable insights come from combining all three sources:
| Globe Shows | Intel Says | Market Prices | Possible Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Military buildup near border | Analysts warn of escalation risk | 35% probability of conflict | Market partially pricing in — monitor for probability increase |
| Protest activity in oil-producing region | Analysts focused elsewhere | No relevant contract | Under-monitored risk — watch for market creation |
| Decline in conflict events | Ceasefire analysis positive | 65% ceasefire probability | Consensus forming — check if positioning has adjusted |
Step 4: Assess Market Impact
Once you’ve identified a geopolitical risk, map it to financial instruments:
Impact Channels
| Event Type | Primary Impact | Secondary Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Shipping lane disruption | Oil prices, shipping rates | Energy stocks, transportation |
| Sanctions announcement | Targeted country’s currency and equities | Global supply chain for affected sectors |
| Military escalation | Defense stocks, safe havens (gold, USD, UST) | Regional equities, currencies |
| Trade restriction | Affected commodity prices | Downstream manufacturers |
| Political instability | Country/regional equities | FX, sovereign bonds |
Cross-Reference with Other Terminal Pages
After the Intelligence analysis, check the relevant asset class pages:
- Commodities — EIA data for energy supply impact
- Currencies — FX rate moves for currency impact
- Fixed Income — Yield moves for safe-haven flows
- Dashboard — Activity wire for insider/congressional trades in affected sectors
Building a Weekly Routine
| Frequency | Activity | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | Quick globe scan of preset regions | 2 min |
| Daily | Check prediction market probability changes | 1 min |
| Every 2-3 days | Read intel feed for new analysis | 5 min |
| Weekly | Deep dive on any developing situations | 10 min |
| Ad hoc | When a specific event breaks | As needed |
The goal isn’t to read everything — it’s to maintain enough awareness that you’re not surprised by events that move your portfolio.