In February 2022, commercial satellite imagery and flight-tracking data showed Russian military buildup along the Ukrainian border weeks before the invasion. This wasn’t classified intelligence — it was open-source intelligence (OSINT), publicly available to anyone who knew where to look.
For financial markets, OSINT has become an increasingly important edge. Events that move prices — conflicts, sanctions, supply chain disruptions, infrastructure attacks — often leave observable traces in open-source data before they appear in mainstream news coverage.
What is OSINT?
Open-source intelligence is the collection and analysis of information from publicly available sources. Unlike classified intelligence gathered by government agencies, OSINT uses data anyone can access:
| Source Type | Examples |
|---|---|
| Satellite imagery | Commercial providers (Maxar, Planet Labs) |
| Flight tracking | ADS-B transponder data (FlightRadar24) |
| Ship tracking | AIS vessel positions (MarineTraffic) |
| Social media | Geolocated posts, photos, videos |
| Government filings | Sanctions lists, procurement databases, regulatory filings |
| Event databases | Conflict trackers (ACLED, UCDP), disaster databases (EONET) |
| News wire services | Reuters, AP, local media outlets |
| Academic/think tank reports | CSIS, Atlantic Council, IISS |
The OSINT discipline originated in military and intelligence communities but has expanded to journalism (Bellingcat’s investigations), human rights monitoring, and financial analysis.
Why OSINT Matters for Investors
1. Early Warning on Geopolitical Events
Geopolitical events that move markets — military escalation, sanctions, trade disruptions — develop over hours or days, not instantly. OSINT sources often capture these developments earlier than mainstream financial news:
- Conflict escalation — Event databases (ACLED, UCDP) track every reported incident, not just the ones that make headlines
- Military movements — Satellite imagery and flight tracking reveal deployments before official announcements
- Infrastructure attacks — Social media posts and local news often report pipeline explosions, port closures, or power grid failures before wire services pick them up
2. Supply Chain Monitoring
Global supply chains have multiple chokepoints where OSINT provides visibility:
| Chokepoint | OSINT Data Source | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | Ship tracking (AIS) | Oil and gas prices |
| Suez Canal | Vessel traffic data | Shipping rates, container stocks |
| Taiwan Strait | Military flight tracking | Semiconductor supply, tech stocks |
| Black Sea ports | Satellite + AIS | Grain prices, agricultural commodities |
3. Sanctions and Regulatory Risk
Government databases and official gazettes publish sanctions, trade restrictions, and regulatory actions. Monitoring these sources in real time helps identify:
- Companies at risk of being sanctioned
- Supply chain partners in sanctioned jurisdictions
- Regulatory actions that could affect specific sectors
Key OSINT Sources for Financial Analysis
Conflict and Event Data
- ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) — Tracks political violence, protests, and conflict events globally. Updated weekly.
- UCDP (Uppsala Conflict Data Program) — Academic conflict database with detailed coding of armed conflicts and battle-related deaths.
- GDELT (Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone) — Monitors broadcast, print, and online news worldwide, coding events by type, actors, and tone.
Natural Disaster and Environmental
- USGS — Real-time earthquake monitoring and geological hazard data
- NASA EONET — Wildfires, volcanic activity, severe storms, and other natural events with geographic coordinates
Humanitarian
- HAPI (Humanitarian Data Exchange) — Displacement, food security, and humanitarian crisis data
Expert Analysis
Not all OSINT is raw data. Expert analysis from domain specialists provides context:
- Bellingcat — Pioneered open-source investigation methodology. Known for digital forensics and geolocation techniques.
- CSIS — Center for Strategic and International Studies. Policy analysis with military, economic, and geopolitical focus.
- Atlantic Council — International security, geopolitics, and economic policy.
- War on the Rocks — Defense strategy and military affairs analysis.
- Breaking Defense — Defense industry procurement and policy.
- Foreign Affairs — International relations and diplomatic analysis.
OSINT in FinBrain Terminal
The FinBrain Terminal integrates OSINT data into two features:
Geopolitical Globe
An interactive 3D globe on both the Dashboard and Intelligence page that plots events from ACLED, UCDP, GDELT, HAPI, USGS, and EONET in real time. An INFORM national risk index provides the base layer.
The Intelligence page version includes regional presets (Strait of Hormuz, South China Sea, Europe, Middle East) for quick navigation to strategically important areas.
Intel Feed
The Intelligence page aggregates expert analysis from Bellingcat, CSIS, Atlantic Council, War on the Rocks, Foreign Affairs, and Breaking Defense into a single feed. Each source is color-coded for quick scanning, and you can filter by category: Defense, OSINT, or Geopolitics.
Together, these tools provide both raw event data (the globe) and expert interpretation (the intel feed) — the two components needed for actionable intelligence.